Betting on reality: How Polymarket taps into the manosphere’s desire for control
By Erika Dulay
As the world becomes more turbulent, the rise of prediction markets like Polymarket reflects men’s growing need to feel a sense of control. But rather than betting on stocks and football games, they’re betting on real life political events, with real life consequences, writes Erika Dulay.
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Did you know, you can bet on pretty much anything that’s happening in the world right now? From celebrity splits, to the weather next Tuesday, to major political events.
We’re now well and truly in Black Mirror territory, and it’s pretty unsettling. As uncertainty and instability continue to grow, people are hungrier for any concept of control, and it’s driving the growth of prediction markets like Polymarket.
It might seem harmless on the surface, but the growing number of bets tied to world events has created an illusion of power within the mass market that can reshape democratic events. And that’s highly attractive to internet subcultures that thrive on power and dominance.
The growth of real-life prediction markets
Founded in 2020, Polymarket is a global cryptocurrency-based prediction market that allows users to trade or ‘bet’ on outcomes of real-life events. The scope of bets are pretty broad - but wagers made on the outcomes of wars, elections and actual global crises are among the most concerning. Not only has this technology opened the doors to speculation, but it now invites us to play an active role in influencing world events.
The platform’s founder, Shayne Coplan, describes Polymarket as a site where you can place bets on “some sort of question about the future”. He says the more people bet, the more likely the betting odds will actually predict if an event is likely to happen. When applied to geopolitical events, this can drive a new kind of insider trading, where advisors and politicians are influenced by potential monetary returns - for themselves, and for their friends.
The more turbulent the world gets, the greater the appeal for control is. Global prediction markets have surged more than 400% over the last year to reach nearly US$64 billion (A$89.4B).
Polymarket’s major breakthrough came during the 2024 US election, when US$3.2 billion was wagered on the outcome. This gamification trivialises the real-life consequences of our political choices - positioning a democratic election as a speculative opportunity to make a profit.
Who’s actually using these platforms?
It’s no surprise that the platform’s users are predominantly young, male (73%) and digitally literate - the synergies with the manosphere are clear.
Much like sports betting platforms and investment sites, Polymarket provides an outlet for men seeking the power to predict and influence the outcome of real life events. Prediction markets can also amplify extreme views and reinforce echo chambers - creating ‘boys clubs’ that breed extremist views with a side of insider trading tips. But rather than betting on stocks and football games, you’re betting on real life political events, with real life consequences.
Polymarket provides an illusion of control that appeals to the men of the manosphere - men who want to feel like they aren’t just spectating world events, but playing a hand in influencing them. Winning a bet makes you an Alpha Male, while losing a bet makes you a Beta male - it’s about acting with power and dominance in the face of uncertainty.
Risks and wider implications
The gamification of reality for light entertainment might seem innocuous to some, but the practice of profiting off global events has grim implications for the state of the world.
Individuals have won millions of dollars betting on political outcomes, raising urgent questions around prediction laundering and insider trading. At the same time, we’re contending with the usual negative impacts associated with gambling - like addiction, misogyny and even domestic violence.
I don’t think we are close to any form of stability in the near future. From raging wars, the rise of the far right, and the skyrocketing cost of living. The urge to take control has become a crutch for men who can’t process the chaos. Betting markets are positioned as an aspirational boys club - a new kind of power encompassing the worst of late-stage capitalism. With rogue political actors like Trump ready to act on the whims of the market, it’s clear this is more than a fad - and we cannot afford to underestimate how it is already shaping our world.
About the author
Erika Dulay
Erika is a British writer and communications professional. After studying Fashion Marketing at The London College of Fashion, she’s built her career in working with brands to craft narratives that don’t just build cultural relevance but respond to societal needs.
