One Nation’s Farrer win is more evidence of the Liberals’ identity crisis

By Ethan Clements

In this contributor piece, 15-year-old student Ethan Clements breaks down what the Farrer by-election results mean for a lost Liberal Party.

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On Saturday night, former Liberal Leader Sussan Ley’s safe seat of Farrer went to a by-election.

At the time of Ley’s resignation, all polls were betting on a tight race between the Nationals and Liberals, both eyeing off their so-called ‘heartland’. Within months, the media widely agreed that this contest was actually between One Nation and independent Michelle Milthorpe.

The Liberals have lost their urban seats to community independents, inner city seats to Labor, and now they are planning funerals for their remaining rural seats. One Nation is fuming for them, pitchforks in hand. After the next election, will the Liberals even exist?

The seat of Farrer, located along the Murray River of southern New South Wales, has always been a jewel in the Coalition’s treasure trove. Only ever being held by either of the two former forces of right-wing politics. The same voices, the same ideas, for 77 years.

The first side of the story is community independent Michelle Milthorpe, who also ran against Ley in 2025. Milthorpe reduced the Liberal Party’s margin to 6.2%, a sharp decline from the 16.4% security they enjoyed in 2022. Her policy platform focused on water, healthcare and a community voice for the area.

One Nation’s candidate David Farley, has become their first member ever elected to the House of Representatives. He ran on a platform focused on cutting migration, lowering prices and better deals for farmers.

The one thing in common with both of these campaigns is they are both fighting against the duopoly of the major parties. While we cannot measure the result in one electorate across the country, this result sends a clear signal that the people of rural Australia don’t feel that either part of the Coalition represents their communities anymore. If they aren’t effectively competing to represent the interests of regional Australians, who are they trying to be?

The Liberal Party’s habit of constantly repositioning themselves reflects their bigger issue, it doesn’t seem clear which voters the party is speaking to anymore.The Liberals should be trying to regain two different voter blocks simultaneously, the urban moderates and the rural communities. When they satisfy one type of voter, the other feels like they aren’t being heard.

This was seen in the 2025 election, with one of the Liberals’ worst defeats in urban areas. As the party now attempts to shape-shift, this is seen by voters as incoherent messaging, unstable positions and political backflips. Leaving the Liberals with a significant divide about how their future should look, and who they should chase.

The rise of One Nation among traditional Liberal voters is not accidental, Pauline Hanson has capitalised on a party refusing to respond to feedback.

The Liberals began an advertising campaign in Farrer against the independent candidate stating, “Michelle is a teal. Not a real independent”. Obviously, this campaign worked for Farrer. They don’t want a ‘climate progressive’, they want voices which represent their type of communities.

In 2025, the Liberals were estimated to have spent more than $1 million attempting to win back the seat of Curtin from independent Kate Chaney in Perth. These attacks on the so-called ‘teal’ seats result in communities feeling even less represented by the Liberal. While urban seats continue drifting to community independent representation, now rural seats are falling to One Nation.

One Nation’s platform for this by-election has revolved around: ‘lower power prices, a better deal for our farmers, improved health services, stronger infrastructure and a serious cut to immigration’.

Pauline has strategically moved into frame the policies and messages which are aligned with voters who previously voted for Sussan Ley in Farrer. The underlying problems within the community are still present, but voters are no longer looking for solutions from the Coalition.

The Farrer by-election wasn’t just proof that One Nation is surging in Australia. It also cements the reality that the Liberals are having a real identity crisis, not allowing a clear path forward towards the future.

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About the author

Ethan Clements

Ethan is a 15-year-old student with an interest in making political and world-events more accessible and captivating for younger audiences.