Your Guide to Election Night

Antony Green, marginal seats, and a GAME for your viewing party

The Marginal Seats

There are 51 marginal seats this election. For a seat to be considered ‘marginal’ by the Australian Electoral Commission, it is held by less than 6%. Here are the ten closest seats, with a special bonus at the end.

1. Deakin, Victoria

Currently held by: Liberal Party, Michael Sukkar.

Margin: 0.02%

Biggest opponent: Labor candidate Matt Gregg, a lawyer who gained a 4.5% swing last election.

2. Bennelong, New South Wales

Currently held by: Labor Party, Jerome Laxale.

Margin: 0.04%

Biggest opponent: Liberal candidate Scott Yung, previous candidate for Kogorah who came close to defeating NSW Premier Chris Minns in the 2019 state election.

3. Gilmore, New South Wales

Currently held by: Labor Party, Fiona Phillips.

Margin: 0.17%

Biggest opponent: Liberal candidate Andrew Constance, a former NSW state minister who lost by 373 votes in 2022.

4. Menzies, Victoria

Currently held by: Liberal Party, Keith Wolahan.

Margin: 0.42%

Biggest opponent: Lawyer and former public servant Gabriel Ng is the new Labor candidate.

5. Sturt, South Australia

Currently held by: Liberal Party, James Stevens.

Margin: 0.45%

Biggest opponent: Local councillor and lawyer, Claire Clutterham, will contest the seat for Labor.

6. Wentworth, New South Wales (my electorate!!)

Currently held by: Independent, Allegra Spender.

Margin: 0.58%

This one is weird: Spender won with a margin of 4.2% in 2022, but the boundaries have been re-drawn and 0.58% is an AEC estimate. She will likely win with a larger margin (our King Antony Green thinks her swing could be up to 6% - so this feels a bit silly).

Biggest opponent: Liberal Party candidate Ro Knox (personally if I see one more corflute of this woman in my suburb I will rip my hair out)

7. Canning, Western Australia

Currently held by: Liberal Party, Andrew Hastie.

Margin: 1.2% (the 2022 result had Hastie leading by 3.59%, this is again AEC margin estimation due to a redistribution).

Biggest opponent: Labor’s candidate is state prosecutor, Jarrad Goold.

8. Moore, Western Australia

Currently held by: Liberal Party, Ian Goodenough, who lost his preselection bid to recontest the seat for Liberal, and will instead be running as an Independent candidate.

Margin: 0.91%

Biggest opponent: Electrician and lawyer, Tom French, is running for the ALP.

9. Lyon, Tasmania

Currently held by: Labor Party, Brian Mitchell, who has held the seat for three terms, but is standing aside to allow former state opposition leader Rebecca White to contest Lyons.

Margin: 0.92%

Biggest opponent: Liberal candidate, Susie Bower, who lost in 2022 by only 1344 votes.

10. Curtin, Western Australia

Currently held by: Independent, Kate Chaney, who, of all 2022 indie seats, is considered most likely to lose to the Coalition.

Margin: 1.32%

Biggest opponent: Former Uber executive, Tom White, is running in the seat for the Liberals.

!!BONUS!!

11. Dickson, Queensland

Currently held by: Liberal Party, Peter Dutton

Margin: 1.7%

Biggest opponent: Ali France will go up against the Opposition Leader for the third time. Dutton has held the seat since 2001.

The Indies to Watch

1. Alex Dyson, Wannon

Formal Triple J presenter (and my friend who I endorse with my whole heart) Alex Dyson is running against Liberal MP, Dan Tehan, in the seat of Wannon for the THIRD time. Alex has a fucking strong preference flow - he could take Dan this time around.

source: ABC of course

2. Erchana Murray-Bartlett, McPherson

Marathon runner and nutritionist, Erchana Murray-Bartlett, is challenging the Liberal stronghold on the Gold Coast. The seat has been comfortably home to long term MP, Karen Andrews, who is now retiring. This is a tough one to crack - but Erchana is one of the strongest new Teal campaigns and is definitely one to watch.

source: The Guardian

3. Nicolette Boele, Bradfield

I had the pleasure of meeting Nicolette Boele at a recent event I attended, she is an amazing candidate for Bradfield who ran an incredibly successful campaign in 2022. She is one of the strongest chances to de-throne a Lib. Here are the ABC’s results from her last crack at the job.

source: ABC again thank youuuu

4. Caz Heise, Cowper

Caz Heise is an amazing woman. She is the Director of Nursing and Midwifery at the Coffs Harbour Hospital. What a fucking amazing indie candidate. Heise is running in the seat of Cowper, on the mid-north coast of New South Wales. The seat has NEVER been won by a woman. This is currently the most marginal Nationals seat in the country - CAN YOU IMAGINE??

5. Kate Hook, Calare (my hometown so of course must include!!!)

This is a fascinating race. Andrew Gee, the current MP for Calare, was previously a member of the Nationals. He left the Nationals and went independent over The Voice to Parliament, Gee was supportive of the Yes vote (the electorate voted 71% No to the Voice, keep in mind). This has opened up an interesting three-way race. Now, there is a Nationals candidate running against Gee. Kate Hook, a teal indie, ran an amazing 2022 campaign. She could win. It comes down to the flow of preferences and how the Nats candidate and Andrew Gee ‘s voter base conflict.

A Drinking Game? (doesn’t have to be alcoholic - it is a little bit of fun for your cheese and wine viewing party).